Low, Likely, High: How to Forecast Your Number
Forecast precision is one of the few things a rep fully controls. You can't control when legal gets back to you or whether a budget gets frozen. You can control how honestly you call your number, how deep you ask questions, and how you show up. The reps I trust most on forecast calls are the ones whose number doesn't surprise me at the end of the quarter.
Give me three numbers
When I run a forecast call, I ask every rep for a low, a likely, and a high. Low is your worst case. Likely is the number you'd stake your reputation on. High is likely plus some real upside.
Your high shouldn't just be every deal in your pipeline added up. Pick the deals that could actually close if things break your way. And know your close rate. If you don't know what percentage of your pipeline you usually win, you're guessing.
Commit, upside, or leave it out
For every deal, I ask the rep what their gut says. If the next step isn't booked, I don't count it. If it might happen but the buyer hasn't done the work yet, it's upside. If a rep thinks a deal is probably lost but wants to keep chasing, I ask whether they'd rather get a no than keep chasing. A clean no frees up your time for deals that can close.
Watch the direction too. By the back half of the quarter, a healthy forecast is steady or moving toward the high. If it's sliding toward the low, something has changed, and you want to know what before your manager asks.
Ask what makes this not happen
The question I ask most on late-stage deals is "what could make this not happen?" The first answer is usually a joke, something like "only if my champion gets hit by a bus." Keep asking. Is funding approved, or is the money actually in hand? Who signs? Has legal seen the contract? Has the buyer been sitting on this for five months while you're trying to close it in five weeks?
Ask it early enough and you still have time to do something about the risk.
Write next steps a stranger could follow
Every deal needs a close date, an amount, and a next step. The next step has to be specific: who, what, when, where, and why. "Trial logistics" tells me nothing. "Email the IT lead Tuesday to book the security review for the week of the 14th" tells me exactly where the deal is.
Time kills deals. A vague next step costs you days every time someone has to dig through emails to figure out what happens next, and that someone is usually you.
Know what your stage actually means
If your deal says contracting, check it against what the buyer has actually done. Is budget approved? Do you know the funding source, the terms, and the procurement path? Has IT signed off? If the answer is no, the deal isn't in contracting yet, no matter how good the last call felt.
Happy selling!